The semiconductor supply chain is on fire, and as AI progresses, it’s obvious that the supercycle is real, and that it has just begun.

In this article, I’ll update some of my highest-conviction AI plays, as well as share my semiconductor bottleneck supply chain stock list and the initial research on one of the most interesting companies on it.

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In this article, I’ll cover two stocks in the photonics industry that I’m interested in investing in, along with the entry prices I would consider optimal.

One of them does not just have exposure to photonics, but also to quantum computing, advanced packaging, broader logic chip manufacturing, and HBM, all while trading at an attractive valuation that still has not skyrocketed like we have seen with others in the space.

At the end of the article, I’ll also share 8 underfollowed yet very promising semiconductor small-cap and microcap companies, each with its own technological edge and trading at low valuations.

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The Next Wave of the AI Super Cycle

The AI buildout has been given the green light to continue in full force, with OpenAI raising a massive $122 billion at a whopping $852 billion valuation.

This has tremendous implications for the whole industry. It shows, in one way or another, that:

• Internal developments are most likely far more advanced than what the public has access to. I speculated that the public release of Blackwell-trained models will trigger another aggressive rally in the AI industry. I would say there’s a high chance these private investors have already gotten a taste of this early AGI-like capability and have become extremely excited about it.

• The largest backers of the AI cycle are more bullish than ever, and the capex race isn’t slowing down anytime soon. You don’t deploy billions of dollars into a private AI company unless you believe you’re going to outperform public market returns. If they expect OpenAI to appreciate significantly, you can also expect its developers and customers to require much more compute.

Semiconductor bottlenecks

However, you can only demand what can be supplied, and there are massive bottlenecks across the industry.

This is going to create a major opportunity for companies that are correctly positioned.

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In this article I’ll cover two U.S. small caps with multibagger potential exposed to the AI buildout

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Micron is down 30% from its ATHs, even after reporting blowout earnings.

Is this justified?

How much further can it fall before it becomes simply absurdly cheap?

Is there an earnings-based price floor that makes it almost impossible for Micron to go much lower?

Let’s go over it

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The market is showing a lot of resilience given everything that has been going on in the world.

From Liberation Day, to the October 10 crypto crash, to the war in Iran, the world is not offering an easy environment for investors, particularly those with higher exposure to high-growth industries.

Think about it. The AI rally is based on hundreds of billions of capex. If interest rate expectations change because of inflation pressure, making the cost of debt more expensive, each additional percentage point can translate into billions in extra cost.

Unfortunately, it seems like it may get worse before it gets better.

An Energy Crisis

The seven Persian Gulf countries produce about 32% of the world’s crude oil, hold about 49% of global proved oil reserves, and Saudi Arabia alone is estimated to hold around 17% of total proved global oil reserves.

Here is where the worrying news kicks in. France’s finance minister has said that 30% to 40% of the Gulf countries’ refining capacity has been damaged or destroyed.

A clear example is Qatar’s Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG plant. Drone strikes damaged two production trains, representing about 17% of Qatar’s Las exports. According to QatarEnergy, repairs will take up to five years, affecting supplies to Europe and Asia.

Because of this pressure on oil and gas prices, the U.S. issued a 30-day waiver allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil.

In response, and to prevent Russia from taking advantage of the situation, Ukraine has been targeting Russian oil infrastructure. Russia’s Baltic Sea ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga suspended crude and oil product loadings after Ukrainian drone attacks, and Russia’s Kirishi refinery, one of the country’s largest, halted processing after fires caused by those strikes. Around 40% of Russia’s crude oil export capacity is now offline due to a mix of drone attacks, tanker seizures, and the closure of the Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine.

This is already having a major impact on crude oil prices, with WTI up 90% since the December lows.

Inflation and Interest Rates

This has not taken long to be reflected in inflation. While it had been on a clear downtrend since December of last year, the current situation has shifted that trend, and now the inflation rate has more than doubled on a YoY basis.

As of January 1, 2026, the clear answer is that the market was pricing in about two Fed cuts for 2026.

Unfortunately, that expectation has now fallen to zero cuts, which explains much of the market movement we are seeing.

In fact, Wall Street now sees a 30% chance of a rate hike.

How fast expectations can change.

This is why NVIDIA is trading at 18x 2026 earnings and Micron at 4x. If capital market conditions worsen, there may be cuts to AI spending over the coming months, or even years, which would put a stop sign in front of these companies’ growth.

The situation is so severe that the International Energy Agency called it the largest disruption to global oil markets in history. However, it is not catastrophic. The IEA still expects global oil supply to exceed demand by 2.46 million bpd in 2026, even after lowering its previous surplus estimate, and noted that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expanding export routes that bypass Hormuz. The UAE and Saudi Arabia also have about 2.6 mb/d of unused capacity through existing pipelines that could help bypass Hormuz. That is not enough to replace the Strait, because more than 20 million barrels per day normally pass through it, but it is enough to avoid a complete halt in Gulf exports.

There is also the safety net of inventories and emergency reserves. The IEA said global observed oil inventories were above 8.2 billion barrels in January 2026, the highest level since February 2021, and member countries agreed on March 11 to release a record 400 million barrels from emergency reserves.

Geographical Impacts

Not all countries are equally affected.

The S&P 500 has fallen about 4% since the war began, versus about 9% for Europe’s STOXX 600 and more than 12% for Japan’s Nikkei.

One stat that helps explain this is that the shift toward a more services-based economy, away from manufacturing, along with access to more diverse energy sources, has made the U.S. economy less dependent on oil, whose price has surged more than 30% since the crisis began. Compared with 1980, it now takes 70% less oil to produce the same amount of GDP, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.

Another reason is that only 4% to 8% of U.S. oil comes through Hormuz, and the United States is a net exporter of petroleum and gas.

In contrast, Asia buys more than 80% of the crude that transits the Strait of Hormuz, and 80% of Qatar’s LNG goes to Asia. Asian LNG prices have jumped 143% since the war began on February 28. The EU’s main gas suppliers are Norway and the United States, but it now has to compete with Asian countries for supply, which has pushed gas prices in Europe up by 85%.

In response, there is already significant demand destruction. Pakistan has moved to a four-day work week to ration energy, while Bangladesh, India, and other price-sensitive buyers are seeking replacement cargoes and shifting toward coal and domestic gas. Forecasts for Asian LNG import growth in 2026 have been reduced to about 5 million tons from 12.4 million, assuming a two-month Middle East disruption. South Korea plans to remove ceilings on coal-fired generation and increase nuclear output, while Japan’s JERA said it would keep coal plants running at high utilisation.

Fertilizer Bottleneck

Beyond energy, the biggest issue may be fertilizers. Around 30% of globally traded fertilizers normally move through Hormuz. Gulf producers are major suppliers of ammonia and urea, and urea prices were already up 30% to 40%. There are no strategic global fertilizer stockpiles, which makes the shock harder to absorb than it is for oil. Two of the most affected countries are China, which gets more than 50% of its sulphur imports from the Middle East, and Indonesia, which gets nearly 70% from the region.

The disruption has hit right as the Northern Hemisphere spring planting season began. Farmers still needing to buy fertilizer are being hit at the worst possible moment, and some may respond by using less fertilizer or shifting away from nitrogen-intensive crops such as corn. Higher prices are likely to show up first in corn and wheat, and later in feed, dairy, meat, bread, poultry, and eggs.

Fertilizer costs in Somalia, Bangladesh, Kenya, and Pakistan, some of the countries most affected, have already increased by more than 40%.

The situation is even worse because the market was already undersupplied before the war began. China had already been restricting fertilizer exports to protect domestic supply, Europe had cut output after losing cheap Russian gas, and now China has started releasing fertilizer from its reserves early to stabilise its domestic market. Russia controls 40% of global ammonium nitrate trade and has also suspended ammonium nitrate exports for a month to protect domestic supply.

Semiconductor supply chain

Taiwan

Taiwan has sufficient domestic petroleum and LNG inventories to meet demand for March and April, and the government has signed new contracts to increase U.S. natural gas imports starting in June.

In terms of helium, a key gas used in semiconductor manufacturing, Air Liquide, an important supplier to Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, said a short-term helium shortage is expected, but that it would reallocate supply from other regions to address the issue. Taiwan’s economy ministry said helium supply remained stable, with imports now available from the U.S.. GlobalWafers said it had reviewed inventories of helium and other key materials and had enough confirmed supply for multiple years, while TSMC said it does not currently expect any significant impact.

So, while manufacturing costs will increase, which could have a short to mid-term effect on the margins of companies like TSMC, the situation is not catastrophic.

South Korea

South Korea supplies about two-thirds of global memory chips, which makes it a crucial player in the semiconductor supply chain. The country also relies heavily on the Middle East for 14 chip-supply-chain items, including helium, bromine, and chip inspection equipment.

On the positive side, SK hynix said it had long secured diversified supply chains and sufficient helium inventory, and therefore saw almost no chance of being affected.

South Korea is the world’s No. 3 LNG importer, with 7.16 million metric tons imported from Qatar last year, and around 14% of its 2026 LNG imports expected to come from Qatar. Korea’s public natural gas company, KOGAS, has inventories above mandatory reserves, and the government is ready to increase coal and nuclear output while reducing gas-fired generation if needed.

In summary, just as with Taiwan, investors should expect higher manufacturing costs, gross margin compression, and, depending on how demand dynamics evolve, an even more severe memory shortage.

Japan

Japan has LNG stockpiles equal to about three weeks of consumption and oil stockpiles equal to 254 days of net imports. Qatari LNG accounts for about 4% of Japan’s total LNG imports, while the broader Middle East accounts for about 11% of Japan’s LNG and around 90% to 95% of its crude oil.

JERA, Japan’s biggest LNG buyer, said it faces no immediate LNG supply threat, but is seeking additional cargoes and added that, if the crisis deepens, Japan may need to consider energy conservation and even restart more coal-fired plants.

Petrochemical companies are cutting output, refinery runs have fallen below 70%, and one JFE Steel power facility was shut due to heavy-oil shortages.

Japan is a crucial supplier of semiconductor materials, specialty chemicals, and equipment, so while there are no reports yet of a specific material shortage, higher energy prices will inevitably affect it in a similar way to its Asian neighbors.

In summary, the war will most likely create inflationary pressure worldwide, and the longer it lasts, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the longer those inflationary effects will persist.

The country that is overall less affected by the situation, although still heavily exposed because we live in a globalized world, would be the United States. Its strong petroleum and gas position, combined with the fact that its citizens spend a much lower percentage of their income on food than in most Asian countries, turns a global crisis into a milder economic problem.

What opportunities could this create in the stock market?

I will not talk here about trade ideas to take advantage of the supply chain disruptions.

I already shared some ideas after the war started, and this is how they have performed over the last month:

• Equinor (EQNR): +43%
  Major gas supplier to Europe.

• Linde (LIN): -1%
  Industrial gases leader.

• NewMarket (NEU): 0%
  Specialty lubricant and fuel additives.

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS): +16%
  Australia-based LNG and upstream producer.

• Santos (STO:ASX): +18%
  Australian gas and LNG producer with Asia-linked demand.

• Kinder Morgan (KMI): +3%
  U.S. natural gas pipelines and storage.

• Cheniere Energy (LNG): +24%
  Core U.S. LNG exporter.

• ConocoPhillips (COP): +20%
  Large-scale upstream crude producer with diversified barrels.

I am going to talk about five positions I am buying more aggressively.

Let’s start.

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Snapshot:

• 4-year return: 512%

• Main theme: AI

• Main sub-themes: data centers and energy

• Diversification: drones, solar, crypto, and fintech

• Number of positions: 17

Current Allocation:

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There are many ways to play the AI boom

In the full article, I cover:

• All the main bottlenecks, including these and more

• The companies solving those bottlenecks

• Bullish and bearish themes and stocks

• Where the industry is heading and which companies are leading

• Valuation models and stock price targets

Photonics

One of the most at-the-edge opportunities is CPO and the broader scale-up architectures that will emerge over the next few years.

For anyone interested in learning more about this, I recommend my article on optical networking stocks.

As a summary, CPO consists of translating electrical signals into light signals just as the information exits the chip, while optical scale-up networking consists of moving that optical connectivity beyond the package and across the broader system fabric. This involves a technology called silicon photonics, which integrates optical components directly onto silicon to enable much faster, more power-efficient data movement at scale.

The demand is going to grow exponentially. LITE is currently sold out in its high-power narrow-bandwidth lasers through the end of 2027, COHR is painting a similar picture, and AAOI is expanding its capacity by 10x to meet demand. Most of this demand will hit in H2 2027 and H1 2028, which is when you will start seeing blowout quarters for these companies. This is because the first architecture to implement optical scale-up will be NVIDIA’s Feynman, and where NVIDIA goes, the rest follow. So we will likely see even more demand than expected as other players like Broadcom, which also has in-house laser manufacturing capacity, Marvell, Ayar Labs, AMD, and others join the CPO race.

Overall, this change in architecture is bearish for companies deeply embedded in the old connectivity architecture, such as Astera Labs, Credo, Marvell, or Alphawave Semi, now acquired by Qualcomm. When I say bearish, I mean on a multi-year basis, and the fact that it is bearish does not mean these companies will necessarily do badly. Even if at the macro level the new paradigm is worse for them, the shift will be gradual, and there is even a chance these companies will adapt.

In fact, they are already making efforts to try to do so.

Astera Labs

Astera Labs acquired aiXscale Photonics in October of last year. aiXscale brings fiber-chip coupling and optical I/O precision glass coupler technology, which is used to connect photonic integrated circuits to optical fibers in dense systems. Astera said this should help it build photonic chiplets and photonic scale-up solutions for rack-scale AI.

Pivoting from retimers to scale-up optics is not an easy task, but these companies need to justify their terminal growth assumptions to analysts. Optical scale-up is inevitable, and Astera has built a business around a technology that will slowly be replaced.

In January 2026, Astera also said its Scorpio X-Series roadmap would add optical connectivity, including photonic switch-to-accelerator links for multi-rack deployments that could scale to thousands of GPUs. In December 2025, Astera also said its new custom connectivity offering would benefit from its newly acquired photonic chiplet technology.

This may sound good. However, as I covered before, Astera’s largest customer, Amazon, has co-adopted NVLink Fusion for Trainium4, which lowers the chances of Astera Labs keeping such high volume inside Amazon’s racks.

Moreover, Astera Labs was left out of ESUN, a new open-source architecture backed by Meta, AMD, Broadcom, Marvell, and others, which strongly suggests there will be market share erosion from Broadcom and Marvell.

Marvell

As we saw before, Marvell acquired Celestial, which gives it a first-class pass into the optical scale-up ecosystem.

Celestial is one of the top silicon photonics companies for scale-up, and it already has an important partnership with AMD to develop optical scale-up solutions for next-generation architectures.

Credo

Credo acquired Hyperlume in September 2025 to add microLED technology to its connectivity portfolio for future AI data infrastructure, although the credibility of this technology is still at a very early stage.

Qualcomm

Qualcomm acquired Alphawave Semi, which had already been expanding into optics for some time, mostly into 800G and 1.6T DSPs.

Qualcomm has opted for partnerships, collaborating with Lightmatter in a co-packaged optics reference architecture initiative.

Logic fab shortage

We are already in a logic fab shortage, but the product cycle is shortening from 3 years to just 1 year. You can design better chips in today’s world than you can build new fabs, which will inevitably create one of the biggest bottlenecks.

There is also an expected EUV machine shortage. It all comes down to EUV machines, and with ASML not showing too much urgency around expanding its CAPEX efforts, with capex down 25% since 2023, it is hard to see production of these machines catching up with the reality of the AI era.

Memory shortage

There is also a memory and storage shortage. Anywhere you look, whether DRAM, NAND, HDD, or SSD, there is a shortage. From insiders, we know this will not end until 2028 at the earliest. No one knows what advancements in AI we will get by then. Some will probably be extraordinary, and we may never get memory relief at all. Although it sounds extreme to say it, this time may actually be different, and we may not get the usual boom and bust cycle.

I’m heavily invested in Micron. For the moment, everything points toward a continuation of what we’ve seen, although I would not be opposed to diversifying my semi exposure into other, less crowded names.

CPU shortage

A CPU shortage is another part of this story. Agents are changing the landscape. As Lisa Su said at a recent event, hyperscalers and AI labs are surprised to see that agents can perform better with more CPUs. This changes the paradigm.

Up until now, the consensus was that AI would gradually shift demand for CPUs toward GPUs. Now, it may seem that, as Lisa has always said, there is not one solution that fits all needs, and in the case of agents, CPUs are needed more than for other purposes. This is creating a CPU shortage for this very same year.

That is very beneficial for AMD, and it could become extremely beneficial for Intel, especially if it can successfully convert its foundry capacity toward more data center products. Its new Panther Lake retail CPU is great, but the margins will not be anywhere near as good as what it could get from data center chips, especially considering it is made on its 18A process.

NVIDIA is going to be another beneficiary. In fact, at the latest GTC, Jensen said they are now offering CPU-only racks and that he sees this becoming a multi-billion-dollar business by itself.

Advanced packaging

Advanced packaging is another example, especially 2.5D + HBM integration, which is currently in a bottleneck.

NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang said in January 2025 that advanced packaging capacity had quadrupled in under two years and was still a production bottleneck. TSMC then said in April 2025 that CoWoS demand was still above supply even while it was doubling capacity, said again in July 2025 that it was still trying hard to narrow the gap for 2025 and 2026, and in January 2026 was still talking about narrowing its demand-supply gap while raising advanced-packaging-related investment.

Intel is also stepping in to help solve the bottleneck with EMIB-T, a 2.5D bridge packaging technology designed mainly for very large AI and HPC packages that need tighter HBM4 integration, faster die-to-die communication, and better power delivery. Intel is now working on improving EMIB and EMIB-T yield and quality to support customer ramps beginning in the second half of 2026.

Intel is partnered with Amkor, which is the main assembly and scaling partner for the broader EMIB ecosystem, while Synopsys, Cadence, Keysight, and Siemens are the main design and validation partners helping customers build around EMIB-T. Intel has also shown proof-of-concept work with Trusted Semiconductor Solutions using EMIB-T for 2.5D assemblies with a path toward 3D through Foveros.

3D packaging

3D packaging is the next step in the advanced packaging roadmap. The industry first moved from big monolithic dies toward advanced packaging, then toward 2.5D systems like interposers and bridges for chiplets plus HBM, and the next step is 3D stacking, where dies are placed vertically to shorten interconnect length even further, cut power, and increase bandwidth.

Foveros Direct is Intel’s 3D packaging technology. It works by stacking chiplets on an active base die using direct copper-to-copper hybrid bonding, with ultra-high-density die-to-die links aimed at better bandwidth and lower power per bit. Instead of placing dies only side by side and connecting them with a bridge like EMIB, Intel can stack one die directly on top of another and treat the package more like one integrated system.

Clearwater Forest will combine Intel 18A, Foveros Direct 3D, and EMIB 3.5D, with launch timing in the first half of 2026.

TSMC’s CoWoS is a 2.5D solution that dominates today’s AI accelerator packaging, and SoIC is TSMC’s 3D silicon stacking technology.

SoIC entered mass production in 2023 to support customers’ next-generation flagship AI products. However, the bottleneck has been in CoWoS, where demand is still greater, although it seems like that could change soon. In January 2024, TSMC said advanced-packaging demand was so strong that it was doubling CoWoS output in 2024 and still could not fully support customers. In April 2025, TSMC said it had to double CoWoS capacity again, that it was still fully loaded, and that 2025 would probably be mostly CoWoS-S, while 2026 would move more toward CoWoS-L. In that same April 2025 call, TSMC said customers were starting to pick up SoIC and more advanced packaging technologies, which tells you SoIC is moving from roadmap to adoption, but it was still not the main volume engine yet.

Samsung’s 3D packaging technology is X-Cube, which works by stacking logic dies vertically. The most advanced version will use hybrid copper bonding, with 4 µm-pitch hybrid copper bonding coming in 2026.

Hybrid bonding

Hybrid bonding is one of the key technologies behind 3D packaging.

There will be an inevitable hybrid bonding boom, replacing the old thermo-compression bonding, or TCB, with hybrid copper bonding, or HCB.

BESI supplies assembly, die attach, and hybrid bonding equipment used in semiconductor packaging.

Micro-bump TCB bonds tiny metal bumps between two dies. Those bumps make the electrical connection and the mechanical attachment.

Hybrid bonding bonds copper to copper, plus the dielectric surfaces around them. That is why it is called hybrid: you are bonding both the metal connections and the surrounding surface together.

According to Samsung, bumpless hybrid copper bonding provides much higher interconnect density and thermal performance by eliminating the joint gap.

The problem for BESI is that management expected the higher-priced, less competitive, higher-margin hybrid bonding business to become its largest assembly segment by 2030, based on the assumption of a shift from TCB to hybrid bonding in HBM5. Meanwhile, according to a reported consensus from the last JEDEC meeting, which sets the industry standards body for memory and semiconductor interfaces, standardization for HBM could get delayed from 2030 to HBM6 in 2032, which would hit BESI’s expectations.

However, the BESI bull thesis goes beyond that.

Hybrid bonding is also used for co-packaged optics, which will start proliferating in data center architectures this year and become standardized in bleeding-edge deployments throughout the decade.

In fact, photonics may be a bigger opportunity for BESI overall than memory, because BESI also sells other tools for photonics, like its multi-module attach platforms.

Photonic foundry capacity

If there is a photonics shortage, and CPO usage is going to explode, it is natural to look upstream, and that is where the photonic foundries sit.

The two main players here are TSMC as the leader and Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) as a very credible second. Tower said in February 2026 that more than 70% of its total SiPho capacity is already reserved, or in the process of being reserved, through 2028, backed by customer prepayments. That speaks to the bottleneck, and it is reminiscent of the one in memory.

Although we do not have demand figures from TSMC, it is the leader through its COUPE architecture, so this will likely become a significant segment for it through the next decade.

GFS wants to position itself as a significant player in SiPho. However, GF is pushing a monolithic silicon photonics model, meaning the CMOS/RF electronics and photonic devices are integrated on the same chip. However, the industry is moving in a different direction.

TSMC COUPE uses SoIC-X and is built to bring optics directly into the package, first with pluggables qualification in 2025 and then CoWoS CPO integration in 2026. That is a heterogeneous, hybrid-bonded direction, where the photonic die and the electrical die are separated and then integrated more tightly.

For example, Ayar had a long history with GF, with GF itself saying the two had been collaborating since 2016 on a monolithic in-package optical interconnect approach. However, more recently Ayar has been publicly disclosing that it is clearly aligned with the TSMC ecosystem, as its 2025 announcement with Alchip explicitly tied its optical engine roadmap to TSMC advanced packaging and process technologies.

Lightmatter made that direction even more explicit in January 2026, saying Synopsys was adapting 224G SerDes and UCIe IP for TSMC’s COUPE process, specifically to make it hybrid-bond compatible for Passage.

Tower’s newer offering is not monolithic either. In November 2025, Tower announced a wafer-scale 3D-IC / CPO foundry technology that extends its existing 300 mm wafer-bonding capability to enable heterogeneous integration across its SiPho and SiGe BiCMOS platforms, moving toward the same broader industry direction of separating the photonic and electronic functions and then integrating them more tightly, rather than insisting everything must live on one monolithic die.

Tower is also building more credibility in SiPho than GF. In 2025, Tower and Innolight said they were expanding their collaboration on Tower’s newest SiPho platform, which Tower described as already in production and ramping to high volume for AI and data-center optical modules. In February 2026, Tower announced it was teaming with NVIDIA on 1.6T data-center optical modules designed for NVIDIA networking protocols. Other partners include OpenLight, NewPhotonics, Scintil, Salience, Oriole, Xscape, LightIC, Lightwave, and Xanadu.

Sometimes it is hard to get a grip on how big these opportunities can be. You can say X or Y is a leader in an important part of the supply chain, but that is not enough of an investment thesis.

You need to factor in valuations.

Some companies have given us some insight into what their future could look like, which is what I’m going to focus on primarily in this particular article.

Company-by-company analysis

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A leader in UAS, including one-way attack drones, laser and radio-frequency C-UAS, and space systems, at a 50% discount

Starting a position after a 50% drawdown.

For some, it may seem like a falling knife. For me, it’s a winner taking a breather.

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My new position is an $11B company with exposure to drones, counter-drone systems, one-way attack UAS, ground robotics, laser-based interceptors, autonomy software, satellite communications, cyber warfare, hypersonic missile tracking, and more.

Its drones are widely used in Ukraine, they are already involved in the Golden Dome program, and last month one of their laser-based systems was installed in a U.S. airport to protect it from drones.

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This physical AI company supplies Amazon, John Deere, Anduril, Skydio, Shield AI, Komatsu, Europe’s largest humanoid robotics company, and thousands of other customers tied to the new era of AI-powered autonomy.

Let’s get into it.

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Demand looks even higher than previously expected in the photonics space, and after going over the companies and technologies moving the industry forward in the last article, there may be more supply chain touchpoints worth tracking.

Let’s see.

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An AI chip is only as good as the connections that let it move information. In the AI era, normal computers don’t make the cut anymore. We need supercomputers, and for a system to be truly super, we need many chips working together as one.

In this article, I’ll go over the connectivity of modern data centers and the companies at the leading edge of innovation.

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Micron has gone up 285% in the last year and 352% in the last five years.

It’s now up sharply, but that alone does not mean the opportunity is over. Just look at NVIDIA, up 1,124% over the last five years, or Modine, a pick and shovels play, up 1,380%.

Investors should not put mental barriers on the upside their stocks can still have. That’s why focusing on the fundamentals is the only way to go.

The Memory Shortage

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There’s one thing that AI will never disrupt, and that’s raw materials.

There’s no AI without energy, data centers, chips, and the grid, and all of that requires massive amounts of materials, many of them critical.

In this article, I’ll cover these themes, accompanied by individual stock research.

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Index

1. Macro and geopolitical situation
2. Key sectors and demand drivers
3. Bottlenecks
4. Companies solving the bottlenecks
5. Catalysts
6. Copper
7. Graphite
8. Conclusion

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Red Cat has been performing well. I’d assume most subscribers who invested are sitting on a 60–150% return, considering the Q4 dip.

What’s Next?

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Portfolio

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Portfolio is up 97% over the last 12 months, as of January 15, 2026.

Index

• 2025 Recap

• 2026 Expectations

• 1. Chips

• 2. Data Center Operators

  • 2.1 Neoclouds

  • 2.2 Pure Colocation Model

• 3. Defense and Physical AI

• 4. Crypto

• 5. Energy

• 6. Precision Medicine

• Price target compilation

• Portfolio

• Next articles

• Conclusion

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